22-27 April 2012, Montréal, Canada

From Knowledge to Action

SWIPA

The Changing Arctic Cryosphere: New Challenges, Opportunities and Policy ImplicationsThe impacts of climate change in the Arctic are becoming increasingly evident in the cryosphere, the part of Earth's surface that is seasonally or perennially frozen, including snow, frozen ground, ice on rivers and lakes, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice. In May 2011, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), one of six working groups under the Arctic Council, released a major new assessment on Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA). The assessment details the latest scientific knowledge about the changing state of each component of the Arctic cryosphere and the resulting impacts on the region, its people and the rest of the world.

Dramatic changesA summary of the SWIPA assessment released in May 2011 notes: "The observed changes in sea ice on the Arctic Ocean and in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic ice caps and glaciers over the last 10 years are dramatic and represent an obvious departure from the long-term patterns." These changes are already having regional and global impacts due to the integral role the Arctic cryosphere plays in regulating the global climate system.

Selected SWIPA FindingsAccording to SWIPA, the six years from 2005 to 2010 have been the warmest period ever recorded in the Arctic, driving changes in the cryosphere. In addition, there is also evidence that snow and sea ice are interacting with the global climate system to accelerate warming.

Changes to the cryosphere include loss of sea ice, warming permafrost, and reductions in the largest and most permanent bodies of ice in the Arctic: multi-year sea ice, mountain glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Other findings of the assessment include:

• Reductions in Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland Ice Sheet account for more than 40 percent of the global sea-level rise of around 3 mm/year observed between 2003 and 2008.
• Temperatures in the permafrost have risen by up to 2°C over the past two to three decades, particularly in colder locations.
• The southern limit of permafrost moved northwards by 30 to 80 kilometres in Russia between 1970 and 2005, and by 130 kilometres during the last 50 years in Quebec.

"Melting permafrost is a critical issue with respect to the development of new infrastructure on land in the Arctic. For example, it creates new engineering issues in relation to the stability of the ground over which any new pipeline may cross," says Russel Shearer, international chair of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group of the Arctic Council.

The assessment also notes that "observed and expected future changes will impact Arctic society on many levels" creating challenges and new opportunities, particularly for local communities and traditional ways of life. For example, differences in the distribution and seasonal occurrence of snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic will "radically change" transportation options and access to resources, affecting both daily life and commercial activities. The trend toward eventual ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean creates another set of challenges and opportunities.

Based on the SWIPA key findings, the AMAP Working Group made a series of recommendations related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, observation of the cryosphere, and outreach and policy needs.

"Governments may want to respond to these recommendations quicker than they anticipated because changes in the Arctic are happening more rapidly than ever predicted," says Mr. Shearer. "For example, 2007 model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underestimated the rates of change now observed in sea ice."

These and other key changes underway in polar regions, along with their policy implications, will be high on the agenda at the IPY 2012 Conference From Knowledge to Action, which will take place in Montréal, Québec, Canada from April 22 to 27, 2012.

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